HOUSTON 40.0 @ INDIANAPOLIS +5 1/2
The opening line on this game was at -6 1/2 Houston, and dropped down to -5 1/2 by Wednesday. 75% to 82% of the action is on Houston, so why did the line drop so far ? . The number on the favorite should have gone up, not down. Houston will look to rebound off last week's loss. The Colts may be off their first win , play this game at home, and may be emotionally exhausted after their victory. Let's not forget, that the Colts have a poor defense, and Houston's T.J. Yates , will improve, and
navigate this offense enough to win. I can see the Texans making adjustments to their offensive line, to limit the Colts pass rush from the edge. Houston's poor effort pass blocking last week, will be practiced , and they will be ready to play this week. Houston's key to their offense this week, will be from their running game. Indianapolis ranks 25th at home vs. the run, and Houston ranks 5th rushing the football. Strong doses of Foster and Tate, will get the job done, without putting all the weight on their rookie QB's shoulders. Houston's defensive line has struggled stopping the run against Carolina last week. The Texan's don't have to contend with a Cam Newton's running ability, nor their playmakers at running back. The Colts don't have enough talent in their back field to
challenge Houston's front seven, and their offense will be stopped. HOUSTON 27 INDIANAPOLIS 14. SPREAD PICK: HOUSTON -5 1/2
O/U PICK: OVER 40.
MIAMI 49 @ NEW ENGLAND -9 1/2
If you can recall the Miami vs. Philadelphia game a few weeks back, when the Dolphins were
physically beaten down by the Eagles?. The main reason why the Dolphins were beat by
over two touchdowns was, they faced a fierce Eagle pass rush, and the their receivers had
to go head to head against two top cornerbacks. New England's defense doesn't have a
pass rush to contend with, especially after they lost Andre Carter for the rest of the year.
The Patriots have a 32nd ranked secondary, and their cornerbacks get beat like a drum in
coverage. This matchup favors the Dolphins, and they play better football when QB Matt
Moore is on the field. Besides that, Look at the season RB Reggie Bush is having. He's been
on fire, and playing with confidence. We comprehend the fact, that the Patriots have an
inept secondary, and now their defensive front seven has shown signs of faltering down
the stretch. On defense, Miami's pass rush may effect Brady's passing game. Cameron
Wake, goes up against a rookie tackle, and this could become a major concern. Miami
has the ability in this match up to sustain long drives, control the football, and manage the
clock. If the Dolphins could execute this game plan, Brady will be limited on offense to put
up enough points to outscore them, and win by a large margin. NEW ENGLAND 31 MIAMI 28.
SPREAD PICK: MIAMI +9 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 49
JACKSONVILLE 40 @ TENNESSEE -7 1/2
The Jaguars season is over, and they are just playing out the string of their remaining games.
I am not saying that the Jag's are throwing in the towel in this contest, they are just
outmatched. Tennessee's stout defense will shutdown Jacksonville's only offensive weapon,
Maurice Jones Drew. The Jags have third rate wide receivers, and a clueless quarterback.
Tennessee on offense, will take advantage of the Jags banged up secondary, no matter
who starts at quarterback for the Titans. Also expect RB Chris Johnson to rebound in this
game, after an overall disappointing season. In conclusion, Houston will jam 8-9 players
in the box to stop MJD, and their corners will easily provide one on one pass coverage
against a bunch of mediocre receivers. TENNESSEE 21 JACKSONVILLE 13.
SPREAD PICK: TENNESSEE -7 1/2
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 40.
TAMPA BAY 48 @ CAROLINA -7 1/2
We know that Carolina will win this game. The question is can they cover a -7 1/2 point
spread?. Tampa has become a joke in the NFL. Josh Freeman has no clue at quarterback, and
his career did a complete reverse. All they can do on offense, is to rush their inconsistent
back, RB Blount, into the line of scrimmage. Don't forget, last week, Carolina stopped the
mighty Texan running game, and should have no problems containing the Buc's rushing
attack. On offense, who on Tampa's defense will be able to shadow, and stop Cam Newton?.
Wide receiver Steve Smith has played like an animal since hooking up with Cam, and his
big play presence on the field will draw double coverage's. While the Buc's secondary is
focusing on Smith, Tight Ends Shockey, and Olsen should be able to beat Tampa's linebackers
in coverage. Both these teams have bad defenses, and that is why the Odds Makers set the
total at 48. There is no way I would play Tampa, however, I am not keen on the fact laying
more than a touchdown , knowing that Carolina has a weak defense. Find another game to
play. CAROLINA 28 TAMPA BAY 21.
SPREAD PICK: TAMPA BAY +7 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 48.
CLEVELAND 38 1/2 @ BALTIMORE - 13 1/2
I don't expect Baltimore to revenge their last week's loss to San Diego, by blowing the
doors off the scoreboard against Cleveland. Cleveland is showing some signs of life. Hillis
is healthy, and Wallace played a decent game. Yes, the Browns are totally over matched
versus Baltimore's tough defense, however, Cleveland's defense is good, and has been
flying under the radar. Baltimore will be forced to utilize Ray Rice to carry the ball at
least 20-25 times. The Ravens do not want their inept QB Flacco challenging the Browns
two top playmakers at cornerback. This game will be played mostly in the trenches, and the
better defense will prevail. The other reason why I like Cleveland in this spot, is based on
the most recent trends. Favorites 12 1/2 points or more, coming of a loss as a road favorite,
are 8-28 against the spread BALTIMORE 20 CLEVELAND 14
SPREAD PICK: CLEVELAND +13 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 38 1/2.
ARIZONA 40 1/2 @ CINCINNATI -4
76% of the public's wagering likes Cincinnati to cover. So if the money is following the
Bengals, why did the line drop from -5.5, to -4.5, to -4 ?.Shouldn't it be the other way around?.
No matter how well Arizona has played in recent weeks, why isn't the money on the Cards?.
This is a must win for Arizona, and they are getting points?. I smell a rat, and it's telling me
to take the Bengals in this spot. Arizona QB Skelton has played well, and Fitzgerald has
been hot of late. The Bengal secondary is badly banged up, and they may be without their
top receiver AJ Green, who separated his shoulder last week. With all this, why is Vegas
luring bettors into taking Arizona by more than a field goal?. CINCINNATI 24 ARIZONA 17.
SPREAD PICK: CINCINNATI -4
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 40 1/2.
MINNESOTA 44 @ WASHINGTON - 6 1/2
If Minnesota uiltlizes Adrian Peterson to the fullest on offense, the Vikings have a chance to
cover the spread. Washington is emotionally exhausted, after coming up with that big win
over their hated divisional rivals last week. Ponder is regressing at quarterback, and has
problems if he has to carry an entire offense vs. a good defense. If Peterson can have an
outstanding day running the football, this will ease Ponder into the offense, and will slow
the Redskin pass rush. I just think for Washington to lay 6 1/2 points in this game is a bit too
much. The Redskins have played well, and competitive in their losses in recent games.
Minnesota lost five straight, and mainly due to the fact, they where without the services of
Peterson. Washington should win this game outright, and not cover. Laying - 6 1/2 points,
the trend indicates that favorite is 5-9 against the spread. WASHINGTON 24 MINNESOTA 20.
SPREAD PICK: MINNESOTA +6 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: NO PLAY.
DENVER 42 1/2 @ BUFFALO +3
Buffalo has lost 7 straight, and allowed 32 points on average to their opponents during that
stretch. On offense during this losing streak, the Bills only managed to score 14 ppg.Denver,
has gone 6-1 (6 straight before last weeks defeat) , and have averaged 22 ppg on offense, and
allowed 20 ppg on defense. Based solely on those numbers, Denver should win 26 to 17.
As the Bills defense battered up defense continues to fold. Their offense collapsed after
RB Jackson went down for the season. The pressure will continue with Dumerville, and Von
Miller rushing from the edges, and forcing Fitzpatrick into making costly QB mistakes. The
Bronco defensive line is a mismatch for the Bills offensive line, and will bring it. The only
concern like most NFL teams is, will Denver show up flat on the road after losing an
emotional game, that ended their winning streak?. Buffalo is too banged up, and has too
many issues to be a threat. DENVER 27 BUFFALO 20.
SPREAD PICK: DENVER -3
OVER/UNDER: OVER 42 1/2.
ST.LOUIS 37 1/2 @ PITTSBURGH -16 1/2
Let me make this short and sweet. Sweet for Pittsburgh that is. When you glance every
matchup category, the Steelers overwhelmingly trump the Rams. Pittsburgh will tighten
up the defense once again, and St. Louis will struggle to score throughout this contest.
The biggest question, is the health of Ben Roethlisberger. He obviously didn't play at
100% on that ankle, and it affected him passing. Pittsburgh will look to win this game
rushing the football with Mendenhall. They will temporarily scrap their dominant passing
game this weekend, to let Big Ben heal. So I don't expect the Rams to score past single digits
in this game. Pittsburgh at Home, ranked 8th Offensively, rushing, and St.Louis on the road
ranked 27th , stopping the run. Pittsburgh 27 St. Louis 7.
SPREAD PICK: PITTSBURGH -16 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 37 1/2.
OAKLAND 42 @ KANSAS CITY -1
Besides all the X's and 0's , there is more that meets the eye , in this hated rivalry matchup.
Oakland has suffered without RB Darrin Mc Fadden on the field. Palmer, is forced to pass
into coverage's , makes too many mistakes, and throws too many interceptions. It doesn't
help that Bush has slumped running the football since his hot start, when he took over for
MC Fadden.KC comes off that big upset over Green Bay, and their on an emotional high.
If I can recall they had 3 shots near the goal line to convert touchdowns, and were only able
to come away with field goals, against a suspect GB defense. Orton, was a shot in the arm
for KC's offense, and they played with enthusiasm . The novelty is now warn off, and it's
back to reality. I noted how Orton struggled with his timing , trying to connect with his
receivers during most of that game. The bottom line why KC looked so good, no mistakes,
no turnovers, and allowed no sacks. That will change this weekend vs. Oakland. The
Raiders have a strong pass rush, and Orton will not have the time to float in the pocket,
and check down. The KC running game is mediocre at best, and could struggle in this spot.
When handicapping this game, you have to understand the complexity of these two teams
when they face one another. The main thing, is looking at the trends. For some reason, the
road team , always seems to come out on top. Here's the tale of the tape. When Oakland
plays at KC on the road, they are 4-0 straight up, and 4-0 against the spread in their last 4
games. KC when they play on the road in Oakland, is 5-1 SU, and 5-1 ATS. So one can
speculate and say …"being the home team is a disadvantage". In addition, Carson Palmer
was finally able to move their offense against Detroit. The reason, playmaker WR Darrius
Heyward-Bey returned from injury, and caught 8 passes for 155 yards, and a TD. The other
playmaker wide out, Jacoby Ford is listed as questionable again, but may be able to suit up
by game time. OAKLAND 21 KC 20.
SPREAD PICK: OAKLAND +1
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 42.
NEW YORK GIANTS 46 @ NEW YORK JETS -3
Both NY teams are coming off defeats, and both teams have under achieved thus far this
season. 81% of the action is on the NY Giants, getting +3 points. For that reason, I will side
with the Jets. Rex Ryan does his best coaching in situations like this, and the line looks
cheesy to me. Eli Manning is far the better QB in this matchup, however, with the Jets
playmakers at cornerback, and the aggressive play of their defense , Eli will continue to
toss up costly interceptions. QB Mark Sanchez, is just a system signal caller, that continues
to play inconsistently from week to week. The advantage he has over Eli, is the Giants
slow, keystone cops, bumbling secondary. If the Giants don't demonstrate a true pass rush
from their front four on defense like last week, Santonio Holmes, and Plaxicao Buress, will
pick them apart. Besides Jason-Pierre-Paul, who else has provided a 100% assertive effort,
to rush the QB on a consistent basis?. Manning will try to stay away from the Jet corners,
and look for his receivers in the slot, or over the middle to their TE Ballard. The Giants will
need to focus on running the football with Bradshaw , to be effective. The Giants have to
keep their secondary off the field as much as possible, and Eli has to control the football,
and manage the clock with sustained drives. The Jets need to get their running game
on track, and Shonn Greene needs to come up big, or the Jets will lose. The only way
you can get a good game from Sanchez, is to slow the pass rush by running the football.
Sanchez loses his poise when flustered in the pocket, and he needs that extra second to
locate his receivers. I can see a high scoring game developing here. And the score should
go back and forth. NEW YORK JETS 31 NEW YORK GIANTS 27.
SPREAD PICK: NY JETS -3
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 46.
SAN DIEGO 52 @ DETROIT -2 1/2
Detroit doesn't need to win this out of conference game, since they a two games up to go
to the playoffs. Sd is playing for their playoff life's, and must win out the rest of the season,
to at least have a chance. If San Diego can stop the Lions pass rush, and RB Ryan Matthews
doesn't fumble in key situations, the Chargers should prevail. SD has a strong pass rush of
their own, and their only hang-up is stopping the run on defense. Detroit's RB K. Smith,
didn't take advantage of the Raiders poor rush defense that ranks 31st , allowing 5.12 ypc.
Detroit's Smith rushed last week for only 2.9 ypc, on 15 carries. Ryan Matthews last week
was ran like a monster vs. the outstanding defensive line of the Ravens. Ryan ran for 90 yards
on 26 carries, and scored two touchdowns. I like the idea that Sd can run the ball, and that
all their receivers are now healthy, in the lineup together, and paying dividends offensively.
QB Rivers, appears to be out of his funk, since his playmakers returned. I really like the
Chargers in this spot. SAN DIEGO 30 DETROIT 27.
SPREAD PICK: SAN DIEGO +2 1/2
OVER/UNDER: OVER 52.
PHILADELPHIA 50 1/2 @ DALLAS -2
Dallas is in a lot of trouble for this game. They already lost their starting RB Murray for the
season, and their back up, Felix Jones is hurt, and hasn't practiced. The Cowboys have other
issues to deal with , besides running the football. Their Safety play, and their Linebacker
pass coverage is suspect. Philadelphia's TE Celek, has a huge game last week against the
Jets. He caught 5 balls, for 156 yards, and a TD. If the Jets couldn't cover him with linebackers,
how is Dallas going to defend against him?. Philadelphia will also attack with Sean McCoy
from out of the backfield. McCoy is a good runner, and if he gets enough touches, he can
be most effective. Dallas, and Romo, will dread the Philadelphia's fierce pass rush. Romo
cannot function under pressure, and expect the Eagles in his face the entire game. The
Eagle corners on defense, are top playmakers, and can cover Austin, Bryant, and Robinson.
They too might have a problem assigning coverage on Te Jason Witten. After all this has
been said, the winning edge goes to Michael Vick, by avoiding Ware's pass rush. Vick's
quickness, and speed, will bail him out of jams , and extend the plays. All signals are a go
for the soaring Eagles, and they would like nothing better than to destroy the Cowboy's
season. PHILADELPHIA 27 DALLAS 24.
SPREAD PICK: PHILADELPHIA +2
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 50 1/2.
SAN FRANCISCO 38 @ SEATTLE +2 1/2
This game will come down to a field goal, and I like Seattle in this spot. 84% of the money,
is on San Francisco, and Seattle isn't getting any respect as dogs at home. It's a fact, when
teams clinch a division, or playoff spot , with regular season games remaining, they seem
to take it down a notch. After SF big victory on Monday Night over Pittsburgh, I don't expect
the 49ers to go full throttle. Seattle is hot, and playing solid football, and they have a
defense that can contend with SF offense. RB Frank Gore, will not be able to run on
Seattle's front seven. Gore is the forty niners catalyst to there offense, and without him
gaining yardage on the ground, Alex Smith cannot quarterback this system. SF approach on
offense is to run the ball, follow it up with conservative short pass plays, and once , or twice,
take a shot downfield for a big play. Seattle will contend with the toughest running back
in the NFL, Mashawn Lynch. SF goal on defense is to stop lynch, and pressure Jackson
on passing downs. No matter how you slice this game up, it will be close into the final
minutes. SEATTLE 20 SAN FRANCISCO 17.
SPREAD PICK: SEATTLE +2 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 38.
CHICAGO 44 1/2 @ GREEN BAY -13
Green Bay has nothing to play for in this game. At best if San Francisco loses to Seattle, GB
takes over the #1 seed. The Packers have lost three key players to their offense, they lost
their best wide receiver Jennings, and two starting linemen. The major concern for GB at
this time, is if their offensive line can stop Julius Peppers from pass rushing Rodgers.
You know that Chicago is going to bring it, and will be aggressive on defense. If GB's
offensive line doesn't efficiently pass block, Rodgers will be placed in harms way, and
their season could go up in smoke if he is injured. Keep in mind that GB's offensive line last
week against KC, was exploited, and the Chiefs were able to pressure, and hurry Rodgers
the entire gaming explosive offense scoring 34 ppg, scored only 14 points at KC., as a
result. GB doesn't have a strong running game, and their offense relies mainly on their
passing game. Cutler looks like he won't play this Sunday. As of Thursday morning, Forte
himself says he isn't 100% healthy to play, Their top receiver Knox is out with a spinal
injury, KR Hester is hobbling, and hasn't practiced all week on his bad ankle, and Lastly,
will Hanie or McCown start at QB for the Bears?.GB's WR Jennings was ruled out for week
#16. What's baffling , is that GB was made -13 point favorites in this game?. Chicago's
offense in their last 3 games averaged only 9 points per game, now with the injuries to
Hester, and Knox, where is the offense going to come from?. It is too early in the week for
me to predict the outcome, without further input regarding all these injuries. For now, all
I can do is take a stab at it. GREEN BAY 23 CHICAGO 3.
SPREAD PICK: GREEN BAY -13
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 45.
ATLANTA 53 @ NEW ORLEANS -6 1/2
The opening line hasn't changed, and 64% of the betting is on New Orleans to cover the
spread. My research revealed that this is one tough divisional battle when these two teams
meet. The favorite in this series has lost to the spread , five consecutive times, and the
Home favorite is 0-4 against the spread. In their last 6 Head to Head meetings, only an
average of 4 points separated them. Both teams have explosive offenses. The Saints
have the better offense with QB Drew Brees. Brees is also chasing Marino's single season
passing record, and he should have that extra incentive to win. Atlanta's key player on
defense, Brent Grimes is listed as questionable, but looks like he will play. Atlanta has
a good package on defense, with a combination of speed, and a stout defensive line.
Their defense is slightly better than the Saints. However, the Saints need to win this
game to secure the number #2 seed in the playoffs. Bottom line, this game could go
either way, and I'LL take the points. NEW ORLEANS 27 ATLANTA 23.
SPREAD PICK: ATLANTA + 6 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 53.
The opening line on this game was at -6 1/2 Houston, and dropped down to -5 1/2 by Wednesday. 75% to 82% of the action is on Houston, so why did the line drop so far ? . The number on the favorite should have gone up, not down. Houston will look to rebound off last week's loss. The Colts may be off their first win , play this game at home, and may be emotionally exhausted after their victory. Let's not forget, that the Colts have a poor defense, and Houston's T.J. Yates , will improve, and
navigate this offense enough to win. I can see the Texans making adjustments to their offensive line, to limit the Colts pass rush from the edge. Houston's poor effort pass blocking last week, will be practiced , and they will be ready to play this week. Houston's key to their offense this week, will be from their running game. Indianapolis ranks 25th at home vs. the run, and Houston ranks 5th rushing the football. Strong doses of Foster and Tate, will get the job done, without putting all the weight on their rookie QB's shoulders. Houston's defensive line has struggled stopping the run against Carolina last week. The Texan's don't have to contend with a Cam Newton's running ability, nor their playmakers at running back. The Colts don't have enough talent in their back field to
challenge Houston's front seven, and their offense will be stopped. HOUSTON 27 INDIANAPOLIS 14. SPREAD PICK: HOUSTON -5 1/2
O/U PICK: OVER 40.
MIAMI 49 @ NEW ENGLAND -9 1/2
If you can recall the Miami vs. Philadelphia game a few weeks back, when the Dolphins were
physically beaten down by the Eagles?. The main reason why the Dolphins were beat by
over two touchdowns was, they faced a fierce Eagle pass rush, and the their receivers had
to go head to head against two top cornerbacks. New England's defense doesn't have a
pass rush to contend with, especially after they lost Andre Carter for the rest of the year.
The Patriots have a 32nd ranked secondary, and their cornerbacks get beat like a drum in
coverage. This matchup favors the Dolphins, and they play better football when QB Matt
Moore is on the field. Besides that, Look at the season RB Reggie Bush is having. He's been
on fire, and playing with confidence. We comprehend the fact, that the Patriots have an
inept secondary, and now their defensive front seven has shown signs of faltering down
the stretch. On defense, Miami's pass rush may effect Brady's passing game. Cameron
Wake, goes up against a rookie tackle, and this could become a major concern. Miami
has the ability in this match up to sustain long drives, control the football, and manage the
clock. If the Dolphins could execute this game plan, Brady will be limited on offense to put
up enough points to outscore them, and win by a large margin. NEW ENGLAND 31 MIAMI 28.
SPREAD PICK: MIAMI +9 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 49
JACKSONVILLE 40 @ TENNESSEE -7 1/2
The Jaguars season is over, and they are just playing out the string of their remaining games.
I am not saying that the Jag's are throwing in the towel in this contest, they are just
outmatched. Tennessee's stout defense will shutdown Jacksonville's only offensive weapon,
Maurice Jones Drew. The Jags have third rate wide receivers, and a clueless quarterback.
Tennessee on offense, will take advantage of the Jags banged up secondary, no matter
who starts at quarterback for the Titans. Also expect RB Chris Johnson to rebound in this
game, after an overall disappointing season. In conclusion, Houston will jam 8-9 players
in the box to stop MJD, and their corners will easily provide one on one pass coverage
against a bunch of mediocre receivers. TENNESSEE 21 JACKSONVILLE 13.
SPREAD PICK: TENNESSEE -7 1/2
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 40.
TAMPA BAY 48 @ CAROLINA -7 1/2
We know that Carolina will win this game. The question is can they cover a -7 1/2 point
spread?. Tampa has become a joke in the NFL. Josh Freeman has no clue at quarterback, and
his career did a complete reverse. All they can do on offense, is to rush their inconsistent
back, RB Blount, into the line of scrimmage. Don't forget, last week, Carolina stopped the
mighty Texan running game, and should have no problems containing the Buc's rushing
attack. On offense, who on Tampa's defense will be able to shadow, and stop Cam Newton?.
Wide receiver Steve Smith has played like an animal since hooking up with Cam, and his
big play presence on the field will draw double coverage's. While the Buc's secondary is
focusing on Smith, Tight Ends Shockey, and Olsen should be able to beat Tampa's linebackers
in coverage. Both these teams have bad defenses, and that is why the Odds Makers set the
total at 48. There is no way I would play Tampa, however, I am not keen on the fact laying
more than a touchdown , knowing that Carolina has a weak defense. Find another game to
play. CAROLINA 28 TAMPA BAY 21.
SPREAD PICK: TAMPA BAY +7 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 48.
CLEVELAND 38 1/2 @ BALTIMORE - 13 1/2
I don't expect Baltimore to revenge their last week's loss to San Diego, by blowing the
doors off the scoreboard against Cleveland. Cleveland is showing some signs of life. Hillis
is healthy, and Wallace played a decent game. Yes, the Browns are totally over matched
versus Baltimore's tough defense, however, Cleveland's defense is good, and has been
flying under the radar. Baltimore will be forced to utilize Ray Rice to carry the ball at
least 20-25 times. The Ravens do not want their inept QB Flacco challenging the Browns
two top playmakers at cornerback. This game will be played mostly in the trenches, and the
better defense will prevail. The other reason why I like Cleveland in this spot, is based on
the most recent trends. Favorites 12 1/2 points or more, coming of a loss as a road favorite,
are 8-28 against the spread BALTIMORE 20 CLEVELAND 14
SPREAD PICK: CLEVELAND +13 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 38 1/2.
ARIZONA 40 1/2 @ CINCINNATI -4
76% of the public's wagering likes Cincinnati to cover. So if the money is following the
Bengals, why did the line drop from -5.5, to -4.5, to -4 ?.Shouldn't it be the other way around?.
No matter how well Arizona has played in recent weeks, why isn't the money on the Cards?.
This is a must win for Arizona, and they are getting points?. I smell a rat, and it's telling me
to take the Bengals in this spot. Arizona QB Skelton has played well, and Fitzgerald has
been hot of late. The Bengal secondary is badly banged up, and they may be without their
top receiver AJ Green, who separated his shoulder last week. With all this, why is Vegas
luring bettors into taking Arizona by more than a field goal?. CINCINNATI 24 ARIZONA 17.
SPREAD PICK: CINCINNATI -4
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 40 1/2.
MINNESOTA 44 @ WASHINGTON - 6 1/2
If Minnesota uiltlizes Adrian Peterson to the fullest on offense, the Vikings have a chance to
cover the spread. Washington is emotionally exhausted, after coming up with that big win
over their hated divisional rivals last week. Ponder is regressing at quarterback, and has
problems if he has to carry an entire offense vs. a good defense. If Peterson can have an
outstanding day running the football, this will ease Ponder into the offense, and will slow
the Redskin pass rush. I just think for Washington to lay 6 1/2 points in this game is a bit too
much. The Redskins have played well, and competitive in their losses in recent games.
Minnesota lost five straight, and mainly due to the fact, they where without the services of
Peterson. Washington should win this game outright, and not cover. Laying - 6 1/2 points,
the trend indicates that favorite is 5-9 against the spread. WASHINGTON 24 MINNESOTA 20.
SPREAD PICK: MINNESOTA +6 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: NO PLAY.
DENVER 42 1/2 @ BUFFALO +3
Buffalo has lost 7 straight, and allowed 32 points on average to their opponents during that
stretch. On offense during this losing streak, the Bills only managed to score 14 ppg.Denver,
has gone 6-1 (6 straight before last weeks defeat) , and have averaged 22 ppg on offense, and
allowed 20 ppg on defense. Based solely on those numbers, Denver should win 26 to 17.
As the Bills defense battered up defense continues to fold. Their offense collapsed after
RB Jackson went down for the season. The pressure will continue with Dumerville, and Von
Miller rushing from the edges, and forcing Fitzpatrick into making costly QB mistakes. The
Bronco defensive line is a mismatch for the Bills offensive line, and will bring it. The only
concern like most NFL teams is, will Denver show up flat on the road after losing an
emotional game, that ended their winning streak?. Buffalo is too banged up, and has too
many issues to be a threat. DENVER 27 BUFFALO 20.
SPREAD PICK: DENVER -3
OVER/UNDER: OVER 42 1/2.
ST.LOUIS 37 1/2 @ PITTSBURGH -16 1/2
Let me make this short and sweet. Sweet for Pittsburgh that is. When you glance every
matchup category, the Steelers overwhelmingly trump the Rams. Pittsburgh will tighten
up the defense once again, and St. Louis will struggle to score throughout this contest.
The biggest question, is the health of Ben Roethlisberger. He obviously didn't play at
100% on that ankle, and it affected him passing. Pittsburgh will look to win this game
rushing the football with Mendenhall. They will temporarily scrap their dominant passing
game this weekend, to let Big Ben heal. So I don't expect the Rams to score past single digits
in this game. Pittsburgh at Home, ranked 8th Offensively, rushing, and St.Louis on the road
ranked 27th , stopping the run. Pittsburgh 27 St. Louis 7.
SPREAD PICK: PITTSBURGH -16 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 37 1/2.
OAKLAND 42 @ KANSAS CITY -1
Besides all the X's and 0's , there is more that meets the eye , in this hated rivalry matchup.
Oakland has suffered without RB Darrin Mc Fadden on the field. Palmer, is forced to pass
into coverage's , makes too many mistakes, and throws too many interceptions. It doesn't
help that Bush has slumped running the football since his hot start, when he took over for
MC Fadden.KC comes off that big upset over Green Bay, and their on an emotional high.
If I can recall they had 3 shots near the goal line to convert touchdowns, and were only able
to come away with field goals, against a suspect GB defense. Orton, was a shot in the arm
for KC's offense, and they played with enthusiasm . The novelty is now warn off, and it's
back to reality. I noted how Orton struggled with his timing , trying to connect with his
receivers during most of that game. The bottom line why KC looked so good, no mistakes,
no turnovers, and allowed no sacks. That will change this weekend vs. Oakland. The
Raiders have a strong pass rush, and Orton will not have the time to float in the pocket,
and check down. The KC running game is mediocre at best, and could struggle in this spot.
When handicapping this game, you have to understand the complexity of these two teams
when they face one another. The main thing, is looking at the trends. For some reason, the
road team , always seems to come out on top. Here's the tale of the tape. When Oakland
plays at KC on the road, they are 4-0 straight up, and 4-0 against the spread in their last 4
games. KC when they play on the road in Oakland, is 5-1 SU, and 5-1 ATS. So one can
speculate and say …"being the home team is a disadvantage". In addition, Carson Palmer
was finally able to move their offense against Detroit. The reason, playmaker WR Darrius
Heyward-Bey returned from injury, and caught 8 passes for 155 yards, and a TD. The other
playmaker wide out, Jacoby Ford is listed as questionable again, but may be able to suit up
by game time. OAKLAND 21 KC 20.
SPREAD PICK: OAKLAND +1
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 42.
NEW YORK GIANTS 46 @ NEW YORK JETS -3
Both NY teams are coming off defeats, and both teams have under achieved thus far this
season. 81% of the action is on the NY Giants, getting +3 points. For that reason, I will side
with the Jets. Rex Ryan does his best coaching in situations like this, and the line looks
cheesy to me. Eli Manning is far the better QB in this matchup, however, with the Jets
playmakers at cornerback, and the aggressive play of their defense , Eli will continue to
toss up costly interceptions. QB Mark Sanchez, is just a system signal caller, that continues
to play inconsistently from week to week. The advantage he has over Eli, is the Giants
slow, keystone cops, bumbling secondary. If the Giants don't demonstrate a true pass rush
from their front four on defense like last week, Santonio Holmes, and Plaxicao Buress, will
pick them apart. Besides Jason-Pierre-Paul, who else has provided a 100% assertive effort,
to rush the QB on a consistent basis?. Manning will try to stay away from the Jet corners,
and look for his receivers in the slot, or over the middle to their TE Ballard. The Giants will
need to focus on running the football with Bradshaw , to be effective. The Giants have to
keep their secondary off the field as much as possible, and Eli has to control the football,
and manage the clock with sustained drives. The Jets need to get their running game
on track, and Shonn Greene needs to come up big, or the Jets will lose. The only way
you can get a good game from Sanchez, is to slow the pass rush by running the football.
Sanchez loses his poise when flustered in the pocket, and he needs that extra second to
locate his receivers. I can see a high scoring game developing here. And the score should
go back and forth. NEW YORK JETS 31 NEW YORK GIANTS 27.
SPREAD PICK: NY JETS -3
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 46.
SAN DIEGO 52 @ DETROIT -2 1/2
Detroit doesn't need to win this out of conference game, since they a two games up to go
to the playoffs. Sd is playing for their playoff life's, and must win out the rest of the season,
to at least have a chance. If San Diego can stop the Lions pass rush, and RB Ryan Matthews
doesn't fumble in key situations, the Chargers should prevail. SD has a strong pass rush of
their own, and their only hang-up is stopping the run on defense. Detroit's RB K. Smith,
didn't take advantage of the Raiders poor rush defense that ranks 31st , allowing 5.12 ypc.
Detroit's Smith rushed last week for only 2.9 ypc, on 15 carries. Ryan Matthews last week
was ran like a monster vs. the outstanding defensive line of the Ravens. Ryan ran for 90 yards
on 26 carries, and scored two touchdowns. I like the idea that Sd can run the ball, and that
all their receivers are now healthy, in the lineup together, and paying dividends offensively.
QB Rivers, appears to be out of his funk, since his playmakers returned. I really like the
Chargers in this spot. SAN DIEGO 30 DETROIT 27.
SPREAD PICK: SAN DIEGO +2 1/2
OVER/UNDER: OVER 52.
PHILADELPHIA 50 1/2 @ DALLAS -2
Dallas is in a lot of trouble for this game. They already lost their starting RB Murray for the
season, and their back up, Felix Jones is hurt, and hasn't practiced. The Cowboys have other
issues to deal with , besides running the football. Their Safety play, and their Linebacker
pass coverage is suspect. Philadelphia's TE Celek, has a huge game last week against the
Jets. He caught 5 balls, for 156 yards, and a TD. If the Jets couldn't cover him with linebackers,
how is Dallas going to defend against him?. Philadelphia will also attack with Sean McCoy
from out of the backfield. McCoy is a good runner, and if he gets enough touches, he can
be most effective. Dallas, and Romo, will dread the Philadelphia's fierce pass rush. Romo
cannot function under pressure, and expect the Eagles in his face the entire game. The
Eagle corners on defense, are top playmakers, and can cover Austin, Bryant, and Robinson.
They too might have a problem assigning coverage on Te Jason Witten. After all this has
been said, the winning edge goes to Michael Vick, by avoiding Ware's pass rush. Vick's
quickness, and speed, will bail him out of jams , and extend the plays. All signals are a go
for the soaring Eagles, and they would like nothing better than to destroy the Cowboy's
season. PHILADELPHIA 27 DALLAS 24.
SPREAD PICK: PHILADELPHIA +2
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 50 1/2.
SAN FRANCISCO 38 @ SEATTLE +2 1/2
This game will come down to a field goal, and I like Seattle in this spot. 84% of the money,
is on San Francisco, and Seattle isn't getting any respect as dogs at home. It's a fact, when
teams clinch a division, or playoff spot , with regular season games remaining, they seem
to take it down a notch. After SF big victory on Monday Night over Pittsburgh, I don't expect
the 49ers to go full throttle. Seattle is hot, and playing solid football, and they have a
defense that can contend with SF offense. RB Frank Gore, will not be able to run on
Seattle's front seven. Gore is the forty niners catalyst to there offense, and without him
gaining yardage on the ground, Alex Smith cannot quarterback this system. SF approach on
offense is to run the ball, follow it up with conservative short pass plays, and once , or twice,
take a shot downfield for a big play. Seattle will contend with the toughest running back
in the NFL, Mashawn Lynch. SF goal on defense is to stop lynch, and pressure Jackson
on passing downs. No matter how you slice this game up, it will be close into the final
minutes. SEATTLE 20 SAN FRANCISCO 17.
SPREAD PICK: SEATTLE +2 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 38.
CHICAGO 44 1/2 @ GREEN BAY -13
Green Bay has nothing to play for in this game. At best if San Francisco loses to Seattle, GB
takes over the #1 seed. The Packers have lost three key players to their offense, they lost
their best wide receiver Jennings, and two starting linemen. The major concern for GB at
this time, is if their offensive line can stop Julius Peppers from pass rushing Rodgers.
You know that Chicago is going to bring it, and will be aggressive on defense. If GB's
offensive line doesn't efficiently pass block, Rodgers will be placed in harms way, and
their season could go up in smoke if he is injured. Keep in mind that GB's offensive line last
week against KC, was exploited, and the Chiefs were able to pressure, and hurry Rodgers
the entire gaming explosive offense scoring 34 ppg, scored only 14 points at KC., as a
result. GB doesn't have a strong running game, and their offense relies mainly on their
passing game. Cutler looks like he won't play this Sunday. As of Thursday morning, Forte
himself says he isn't 100% healthy to play, Their top receiver Knox is out with a spinal
injury, KR Hester is hobbling, and hasn't practiced all week on his bad ankle, and Lastly,
will Hanie or McCown start at QB for the Bears?.GB's WR Jennings was ruled out for week
#16. What's baffling , is that GB was made -13 point favorites in this game?. Chicago's
offense in their last 3 games averaged only 9 points per game, now with the injuries to
Hester, and Knox, where is the offense going to come from?. It is too early in the week for
me to predict the outcome, without further input regarding all these injuries. For now, all
I can do is take a stab at it. GREEN BAY 23 CHICAGO 3.
SPREAD PICK: GREEN BAY -13
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 45.
ATLANTA 53 @ NEW ORLEANS -6 1/2
The opening line hasn't changed, and 64% of the betting is on New Orleans to cover the
spread. My research revealed that this is one tough divisional battle when these two teams
meet. The favorite in this series has lost to the spread , five consecutive times, and the
Home favorite is 0-4 against the spread. In their last 6 Head to Head meetings, only an
average of 4 points separated them. Both teams have explosive offenses. The Saints
have the better offense with QB Drew Brees. Brees is also chasing Marino's single season
passing record, and he should have that extra incentive to win. Atlanta's key player on
defense, Brent Grimes is listed as questionable, but looks like he will play. Atlanta has
a good package on defense, with a combination of speed, and a stout defensive line.
Their defense is slightly better than the Saints. However, the Saints need to win this
game to secure the number #2 seed in the playoffs. Bottom line, this game could go
either way, and I'LL take the points. NEW ORLEANS 27 ATLANTA 23.
SPREAD PICK: ATLANTA + 6 1/2
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 53.
